Will Social Networks Impact The Election?

Todd Zeigler and the Bivings Report led me to an interesting post by Sanford Dickert on his Political Gastronomica site about "the seeming lack of impact social networks have truly had on the 2008 elections so far" (as Zeigler puts it).Discussing the question: Will social networks impact the 2008 presidential election, Dickert writes:

I was asked this question last year by my friend from Wired, after I finished with another campaign, and I can STILL heartily say - even with techpresident's MySpace, Facebook and YouTube counters - I believe that social networks will still NOT impact the coming 2008 election. "Wha?", I hear my poli-tech friends gasp. "Didn't you read the study that shows Facebook numbers are an indicator of relative success of drawing voters?" "Weren't you at the Facebook Political Summit ?" "Aren't you impressed by / using the new Facebook tools?" "Aren't you impressed by the incredible reach of all of the candidates and their supporters through MySpace, facebook, flickr, YouTube?". No. And why not? I think they are missing an essential ingredient: simple, human contact.

Dickert finally concludes:

When I go to the local mall, county fair, outdoor market - I can often see the ardent supporters of candidates "tabling" in the flow of traffic - holding their campaign literature, sign at the edge of the table, looking for eyes that are ready to learn more about the person running for State Senate, Congress or even President. You and your friends are there, giving each other moral support as the throngs of people walk by - nary paying attention to you, until a person walks up and says, "So....tell me about Senator X."Where are the Virtual Tablers?This is where the campaigns can use their volunteers and give them the power to reach across their own networks and chat up people when they are interested in learning more about the candidate. But, it is not easy to go and "speak" to someone in Facebook since all of the communications are not interrupt-driven (as a face-to-face might be), they are addressed whenever the receiver wants to. How do you get people to accept the interrupts? Usually, that is the sense of presence - of human contact. Once that magic ingredient is "captured" and enabled, then I could see social networks truly engaging people.

Dickert might make a relevant point, to a certain extent, but we still feel that this is not the last word.

Our point is that claiming social networks will NOT impact the coming 2008 election because they do not have the ability to – as Dickert puts it – "chat up" people limits many factors about these networks that really might have the ability to impact the election.

Take a site like "One Million Against Hillary Clinton" (Facebook), that encourages people to go viral and recruit friends and neighbours to join them in the fight to stop Hillary Clinton. A sight like this might not have a direct impact on people's voting behaviour. But when it makes CNN because of its viral marketing ability, it has certainly had an impact on the new agenda.

Also, take the "Vote Different" video on YouTube that attacks Hillary Clinton. This video has been viewed by over 3.8 million people. Saying that this video has not had an impact on the election is like saying that ads in general have no impact on elections.

Other notable examples for communities that have the potential to exercise influence on the voting process: moveon.org or getup.org.au. Both caused quite some stir in the political establishments of the respective countries they are active in.

It also seems that Sanford somehow equates human contact with an invasion of privacy and can't seem to accept the fact that people are now able to escape the mall stands and make their own informed choices. This eventually gives the impression that he has an outdated model of the voter respectively of campaigning which sees the voter as somehow without agency. In the internet now this invasion of privacy just isn't possible anymore (except for spam) but the voters are the ones in charge. And we better get used to it – if we need to resort to interrupting peoples' lives as a major way to attract voters then we should really worry about our other campaigning techniques and what went wrong with them.

Also on a more basic level the question is: How do we measure impact? Larry M. Bartels (1993, p. 267), once said that the state of research in the "media effects" area is "one of the most notable embarrassments of modern social science". Over time theorists have gone from claiming that the media have had a strong, almost hypodermic effect that can shape opinions and beliefs, to suggesting that the media have only a minimal effect on citizens because they can not deliver political messages with any predictable effect.

On the other hand theories about agenda setting testify to the power media can have over the community. But then again: Social networks can set their own agendas and influence political discourses.

Eventually we don't think that we have come to a stage where we in the "social network effects" area can exclude a hypothesis stating that social networks CAN or WILL impact the coming 2008 election. The reason: We ultimately do not yet have a clear enough understanding of how we can measure the impact of social networks.

Berelson (in Diamond & Bates 1984, p. 347) once said, musing about his own findings in the "media effects" area over the years, that: "some kinds of communication on some kinds of issues, brought to the attention of some kinds of people under some kinds of conditions, have some kinds of effects" (in Diamond & Bates 1984, p. 347).

So, in Berelson's words, our understanding for now is: that social networks on some kind of issues, brought to attention of some kinds of people under some kinds of conditions, may have some kinds of effects – also on the coming 2008 election.

Espen & Jens

MyRagan 1, Parker 0

As a result of the overwhelming response that I've received from the post I made on MyRagan's forums last week, combined with Shel Holtz's similar appeal for pro-MyRagan stories, I'm conceding defeat in this round. (UPDATE: I find it slightly disappointing that neither my comment from Friday nor any other comments have appeared on Holtz's MyRagan blogpost. What gives, Shel?) While I had thought that MyRagan was a backwater, the number of people commenting on my blog in favor of MyRagan showed me two things. First of all, it showed that there are a number of people who are passionate about the site, passionate enough to vocalize their opinions and defend MyRagan. Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, the number of people connecting from my original post on the MyRagan forums and Shel Holtz's MyRagan blogpost was overwhelming, and proof that there is a very active community of communicators.

If you want to read through all the comments that I received, take a look at these two posts of mine (first one, second one). Some of the highlights:

MyRagan's managing editor Micheal Sebastian points us in the direction of this article from the New York Times website with a ton of comments in favor of niche social networks.

In one of the most valuable comments, Valarie writes "I’m not a big networking kind of gal, but myragan has been very helpful to me as a professional resource. For example, my boss is working on a report about Internal Communications for senior management. She wondered where the Int Comms dept reports into in other companies (PR, Marketing, CEO, etc). Instead of spending ages on the web trying to research the matter, I put the question to a myragan forum. I received some good responses, including one from a Ragan staffer who recently conducted an Int Comms survey and could quote me exact percentages from his research. So I was able to retrieve some good information with a minimal amount of time invested in the research."

It is her idea that we can get solid data and great ideas from MyRagan that has certainly made me think twice.

And another good argument in favor of MyRagan comes from one of their own employees, Benswetland (I don't know if I should be thinking of that name as Ben's Wetland or Ben Sweatland, but both are pretty sweet): "What I like about myragan in particular and niche social networking sites in general is that they allow me to show a different “face” or side of myself, something I couldn’t do if I was only on one site. I have a myspace site for my band, another for my friends, a facebook profile for my friends, and a myragan page for my colleagues.

In a very real sense I’m different people to each group, and it’d be silly (and bad for my career) to use the same profile for each one. I take it you’re on Facebook for professional reasons only, but you’re in a decisive minority there. Maybe someday Facebook will figure out how to show different sides of ourselves to different groups of people (a personal profile/a professional one) in some kind of intelligent way. I think it’s a major hurdle for a Facebook to solve. But they haven’t yet to my knowledge. Until they do I see social networking going the way of magazine publishing: diversified niches."

Ben assumes wrongly that I'm on Facebook for professional reasons, however I do have a number of professional contacts on there. While I am able to use the limited profile setting to prevent them from seeing content that is, uh, 'unprofessional' it would be nice to have more content control over the content I'm sharing. Separate identities on different social networks such as what Ben suggests certainly makes sense.

There was also still some encouraging objectivity in a few of the comments.

As Richard Becker* writes, "the ideas are not bad over there as much as the execution and attitude. I’ve seen a few niche social networks work well (just not one that seems to resonate with communication-related professionals). Social niche networks rely on leadership more than platforms. If there is a challenge with MyRagan, it’s in the presentation of their own material and the lack of content leadership (as opposed to content management)." He goes onto provide some examples of this, and I urge you to take a look at what he has to say in the comments section of this post.

Donna Papacosta makes a similar statement when she suggests that MyRagan should have a better way of informing users about new content on the site.

I'd still like to hear what Jeremiah Owyang has to say about MyRagan (considering his views on Facebook), but in general I'm going to make greater efforts to involve myself in MyRagan. I'm still not 100% convinced that the site will make it to a successful first birthday, but if they do I accept the invitation to the party. I'll be the guy in the corner eating a big serving of humble pie. In the meantime, add me as a friend on Facebook or MyRagan.

Thanks to everyone who commented or came over to BlogCampaigning to take a look.

Cheers,

-Parker

UPDATE: Take a look at what Buzz Canuck has to say about Facebook

*Love that moustache, Rich