August 2, 2023 Update: I wrote the post below on February 24, 2023. At that time, linear TV and Connected TV were still pretty neck and neck. Since then, the data is clear that CTV has pulled ahead, unsurprisingly.
My points below still stand: That I don’t think anything will hold the same power and mystique as traditional TV, for all of the reasons outlined below. But that video, served by Connected TV, is one of the next best ways to connect emotionally with audiences, shift perception and ultimately drive action.
I had a super interesting conversation with my team the other day about which media channels we should recommend to a client.
My in-the-moment response was that if budget wasn’t an issue then traditional, old-school, linear TV* should absolutely be included in the mix.
Immediately after saying that I second-guessed myself. It was one of those things that felt right based on my experience: brands I’ve worked with in the past several years have had success with sales and both prompted and unprompted recall using TV. And some of the biggest brands in the world - with presumably the data and common sense to make sound decisions - are constantly advertising on traditional TV.
But I didn’t want to fall into a trap of my own experiences so I dove down a rabbit hole of research.
I’ve got a summary of what I found at the start of this, but also a longer version you can jump down to.
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“Does anyone still watch TV?”
Broadcast Television is still one of the most frequently viewed media channels
68% of viewing time was spent with linear TV in 2021, compared to 32% for streaming (Nielsen 2021)
Canadians watch 10.9 hours of TV per week, compared to 8.9 hours for Streaming Video On Demand (SVOD) (Numeris 2021)
Canadians watch 2h05m of linear TV per week, compared to 1h39m of streaming/video on demand (GWI, Q3 2022)
TV (and other traditional forms of media) are considerably more effective at driving long-term results and sending signals of trust and quality.
TV drives a disproportionately large share of long-term sales effects compared to other mediums (Thinkbox, 2022)
Even according to Meta’s own research, TV is still more effective than Facebook/Meta at driving long-term results for CPG, Retail, and Telco brands, and still plays a considerable role for tech (Meta 2022)
In the US, TV delivered the highest ROI of all media for every dollar spent at $14.34 ( Global TV Group 2020)
The effectiveness of mass media like TV, print, and radio is due to it’s inefficiency. (“The Errors Of Inefficiency”)
Less targeting means that these channels are better at reaching beyond our people who want to buy immediately or who might be outside the category.
Ads that we aren’t focusing on (like a TV on in the background) are considerably more effective at persuading us.
Using expensive formats like signal quality, reliability, and trust in ways that other channels don’t.
So what should we do?
If the budget allows for it ensure that more traditional media channels are included as part of the mix.
If there is less budget, I believe that Connected TV has incredible potential to drive some of the same results, though it might never be as good at sending the same fitness and quality signals.
TV (both linear and connected) aren’t enough on their own - they need a strong ecosystem to reach audiences elsewhere. This includes:
A paid and organic search presence: it will likely be the first place people will look.
A social presence: it’s likely to be the next place people will look for further quality signals and information.
An easy place to buy: Likely a website with a frictionless eCommerce experience or widespread distribution via retail.
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Do people still watch TV?
I certainly don’t. At least I don’t at home: I spend time watching Netflix on a Connected TV. Or I watch videos on Instagram and Reddit on my phone while my girlfriend watches a show on Amazon Prime or Apple TV or Netflix. Or I sometime cast a YouTube video to the big TV. Or I play a game on my computer. When I’m at a bar or a restaurant though I can’t turn away from the TV - I get overly focussed on the ads.
But I’m also not most people. I work in Digital Marketing, and have spent the last ~20 years of my life thinking about ads, communications, social media and technology in a professional capacity. I have to remind myself that I’m not my clients, I’m not their audience or customers. I’m not “everyone.”
And the data is pretty clear that linear TV still dominates what the majority of people watch (though connected TV is catching up!).
According to some recent research, Connected TV just surpassed linear TV in Canada, with 68% preferring streaming to 56% linear.
Other research finds that more globally, 68% of viewing time was spent with linear TV in 2021, compared to 32% for streaming (Nielsen 2021) And other research says that Canadians watch 10.9 hours of traditional TV per week, compared to 8.9 hours for Streaming Video On Demand (SVOD) (Numeris 2021)
And according to another source, Canadians watch 2h05m of linear TV per week, compared to 1h39m of streaming/video on demand (GWI, Q3 2022)
Linear Television is still one of the most frequently viewed media channels - though Connected TV is catching up.
Are TV ads even effective?
Absolutely. And wildly so. And it largely has to do with the fact that WHERE our message appears is as important as WHAT it says and HOW it looks. You might even say that “The Medium Is the Message”.
Our work is meant more than to communicate simply what a product is and where to buy it. The best ads communicate something about the types of people who use the product and what the company stands for. Where these ads appear is a powerful way to communicate that: an ad for a watch in Vanity Fair signals that it’s worn by the people in that magazine (or, at least by the people who aspire to be in it). The back of the newspaper is reserved for classifieds, and a brand aspiring to be premium wouldn’t be caught dead there.
When we look at ads, we’re unconsciously evaluating everything about them: we’re deciding if this is a quality product, if the manufacturer is someone we can trust, and if it’s something that will be worth the money.
Meta recently conducted some research with Les Binet, the so-called “Godfather of Advertising Effectiveness” to find out how much impact linear TV had on the long-term effects of communications and it’s not surprising that Facebook and Instagram are starting to play a large role in driving those. But to me, it’s equally fascinating that even in this study TV still dominates across CPG, Retail, and Telco when it comes to brand building and long-term effects.
This might be because Traditional channels (TV, Magazines, Newspapers, Radio) significantly outperform digital channels like social media when it comes to sending Fitness and Social signals.
And advertisers are seeing real, tangible results:
In France, on average TV campaign achieves sales revenues (ROI) €4.9 per €1 invested.
In Italy, TV generates almost three times the brand recall of Web ads (60% vs 18%).
In the US, TV delivered the highest ROI of all media for every dollar spent at $14.34.
In France, the traffic of an advertiser’s website during a TV campaign increases by 61%.
TV is the media which generates the highest brand equity in Mexico, contributing a 28% share of contribution.
TV and radio are also considerably better at building emotional trust with audiences. This trust is critical when it comes to creating a brand that people will want naturally reach for (digitally or physically) when it comes time to buy.
Think With Google has similarly favourable news about the effectiveness of linear TV for advertising:
It’s likely that this has shifted since these studies were done, but 2 or 3 years isn’t enough for Connected TV or social media to catch up nor enough time for TV and radio to truly fall from their elevated spot.
Why are they so effective?
In his essay “The Errors Of Efficiency,” Alex Murrell lays out three myths about “inefficient” forms of communication like television.
The entire thing is worth reading (and the links within are worth exploring), but I’ll try and summarize Murrell here:
Error 1: Mass media is wasteful because it is untargeted -
Ads serve a greater purpose than purely reaching their audience. They send a social signal - or cultural imprint - to people that this ad reaches. Simply by assuming that more people have seen a message, we’re more likely to be influenced by it. From Murrell’s essay:
To find out the behavioural scientist Richard Shotton asked 257 people to imagine that they had seen an ad for a chocolate bar online. Shotton then asked his panel how many other people they would have expected to have also seen that ad. The results were surprising. Only 46% thought that more than a million people would have seen it. That figure increased to 71% when he told the respondents that they had seen the ad on TV. People, it seems, intuitively believe that public broadcast media reaches a larger audience than private, targeted media.
To summarise, yes traditional communications are mass, but that does not make them wasteful. Mass media reaches a large audience, imprinting brands on culture and imbuing them with self-expressive benefits.
The things we do, the music we listen to, the clothes we wear, the products we buy are all self-expressive: as much as their immediate purpose is to us, it’s also a signal to those around us. And that signal is only effective if we know others know what it means.
One of my favourite books (non Science Fiction books, that is) is APG’s How Not To Plan, and it lays down the case that it’s more effective to be talking to everyone in a market - not just your target or those who are immediately ready to buy - as it lays the groundwork for future purchases.
Error 2: Mass media is wasteful because it is ignored
And the data is right: Mass media like TV is ignored. But that’s precisely why it works, according to Murrell’s essay.
There is compelling research that shows we’re more likely to be persuaded when we’re distracted, tired, or depleted. It’s easier to actively say “This ad isn’t for me” when it’s right in front of our faces on a mobile phone. But it’s a little bit harder to ignore those messages when they’re playing in the background:
The majority of all the findings above about the number of hours or percent of consumption that linear TV makes are self-reported. My hunch here is that these self-reports underreport the amount of time that people spend with TV because they don’t account for the screens at the edge of our attention: the ones playing in bars and restaurants and waiting rooms. The ones at the edge of our periphery.
As one researcher found: “Ads may be more powerful precisely because people pay them so little heed that they do not call critical defences into play.”
Error 3: Mass media is wasteful because it is expensive. As I’ve mentioned above, television (and other, expensive formats like magazines) can help shift the perception of brands. As per research from Thinkbox:
43% of viewers said that a brand was “high quality” when advertised on TV, compared to 19% for social media.
50% of viewers said that a brand was “financially strong” when advertised on TV, compared to 21% for social media.
58% of viewers said that a brand was “confident” when advertised on TV, compared to 40% for social media.
In similarly expensive communications mediums, Murrell suggest we look at banks: their heavy, ornate architecture isn’t cost effective to build or maintain. But it sends a message of solidarity and trust: this bank isn’t going anywhere. Your money is safe.
He closes by saying “Just as a peacock’s plumage signals strength, and the battlements of British banks signal trustworthiness, expensive media signals the same for brands.”
The effectiveness of mass media like TV, print, and radio is due to it’s inefficiency (“The Errors Of Inefficiency”)
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The world is changing, and while it feels like it might be changing quickly our worldview changes even more slowly. And our habits and behaviours follow that.
Connected TV is slowly playing catch up (and might never reach the heights of traditional media) while our trust in social channels continues to erode.
TV as we know it won’t be around forever. Printed newspaper will become a luxury. A glowing cityscape of Blade Runner-style ads, drone fleets or Augmented Reality will make us miss the old days of static billboards.
But for now they’re some of the most powerful ways for us to reach and persuade the world.
*When I say “linear TV” here I’m referring to broadcast TV. Traditional TV. TELEVISION! Not your new-fangled streaming services.
**Alex Murrell’s “Errors of Efficiency” was a bit of inspiration for this post, and I highly recommend his essay to anyone involved in communications or media.