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Blogs Impact on the 2008 race: What's different from 2004?

Jerome Armstrong had a post on the Dole Institute Blog last month where he compared the US blogosphere in 2004 to the blogosphere of today in order to point toward some of the possibilities for how blogs will be used in the 2008 campaign. Here’s a long short-version of the main differences that Armstrong points to (in his own words):

Size: The blogosphere, in 2007, is 100 times as big as it was at this time in the last cycle, in 2003. Today, the top 100 blogs on the liberal side are visited by over 10 million hard core democrats on a regular basis. By and large, it is the same majority that votes in primaries and caucuses that visit the partisan democratic-leaning blogosphere.

Diversity: In 2003, most of the blogs that were focused upon by the big media outlets as having an impact upon the Presidential contest were very political-focused blogs. Now, there are blogospheres within the blogosphere, and pretty much anyone can find a blog community on the topic of their choice. Technology, Sports, Entertainment, Gossip, Counter-culture, Gaming, the list goes on and on. It’s where people are on the internet, and it’s the job of campaigns to interact with them, as many of them are the low-information voters that are needed to win. In addition, the development of local, in-state, blogospheres have become vital to connect activism on the netroots to local grassroots action.

Staff: Last cycle, on the Democratic side for the primaries, only Dean really had an internet team that did such things as blogger outreach, rapid response through the blogs, and fundraising over the blogs. This cycle, it will be just the opposite, with whichever campaign that does not have an internet outreach effort to the blogosphere, sticking out like a sore thumb.

Multimedia: In the last cycle, blogs mainly relied upon text to get their point across.. When You Tube launched in the beginning of 2006, everything changed. Now, bloggers can easily upload videos or embed/link to them from their sites. It’s now becoming the same way with the advent of Blog Talk Radio shows that have the ability to allow multiple users in on a talk show. Blogs are becoming multimedia content producers, which gives them the potential to reach larger numbers of viewers than having just text readers alone.

I’ve not even mentioned fundraising, technology and organizing, but the above should give you a feel for what’s in store with the blogs and the 2008 presidential cycle.

Afterthoughts: Edwards & the Netroots: What happened?

I am too busy writing on my thesis, tutoring in a campaign strategy course at my University and blogging on this blog to have a clear overview of everything that’s happening in the political blogosphere and what is being said about it at all times. That’s why I sometimes save some of the good articles and posts I want to write about later. Unfortunately I forget about most of them - they become outdated - and there is no point in discussing them. But the one I am about to discuss now is too good to just let go of: Ari Melber had a great piece in the Nation two weeks ago where he reflected on what the Edwards/Marcotte scandal really was all about. What is interesting about the article is that Melber makes a point of discussing how the netroots has become a powerful and political force in the progressive landscape in American politics and how the conservatives has come up with strategies to limit this force.

Melber writes:

The netroots are the most aggressive, ascendant force in progressive politics, wielding more members, money and media impact than most liberal organizations. In the 2006 election cycle, MoveOn alone spent more than every other liberal political action committee except the prochoice EMILY's List. According to the Institute for Politics, Democracy and the Internet, online donors gave Kerry $82 million in 2004, and Democrats expect much more in 2008. (Bush pulled only $14 million from the web.) And now top bloggers--like Jerome Armstrong, Markos Moulitsas and Glenn Greenwald--have hundreds of thousands of readers, successful books and a bully pulpit in print and broadcast media.

Republicans cannot stop the donations or pressure the media into ignoring liberal bloggers. Instead, the GOP has tried to drive a wedge between Democratic leaders and the netroots by attacking bloggers--and their readers--as an extreme vitriolic embarrassment. During the midterms, the Republican National Committee repeatedly attacked Democratic candidates for accepting netroots donations and working with bloggers, even distributing a six-page "research" brief maligning Moulitsas, the founder of Daily Kos. Conservative operatives recently floated smears of anti-Semitism at MoveOn [see Eric Alterman, "No Comment," October 30, 2006], Republican donor Bob Perry sank $1 million into a new group devoted to battling MoveOn and Bill O'Reilly regularly denounces the "far left websites." The strategy is to scare Democratic politicians away from tapping their motivated base.

And what happened in case of the Edwards\Marcotte scandal?

Edwards hired two bloggers. They had previously written entries mocking religion. Donohue, president of the Catholic League, assailed them as "anti-Catholic vulgar trash-talking bigots" and demanded they be fired – A by the book strategy where Donohue had made Democrats upset with the netroots.

So what becomes of the relationship between campaigns and bloggers?

Melber:

"On our blogs, we all say things that might offend someone. Truth is, in life--in bars, in restaurants, in offices, on the phone--we all do that, only now there is...a permanent record," wrote Jeff Jarvis, director of CUNY's interactive journalism program, about the Edwards affair. When campaigns hire bloggers, he explained, they empower people who talk "without the veils of spin and PR and plastic discretion that politicians must learn." Yet the very skills that make a good blogger--provoking people with passionate, authentic opinions--are considered a handicap on the campaign trail. John Edwards took a bold step by hiring and standing by two liberal feminist firebrands, but he was not prepared for their written words to compete with his campaign message.

The best political blogs thrive on a discourse built in opposition to the mainstream; people gather to commune in ways not permitted by media and political gatekeepers. The vigorous dialogue is probably closer to voters' real conversations than politicians' sanitized talking points or the breathless speculation that passes for news today, from premature presidential polls to Anna Nicole Smith's death. In the end, campaigns prefer discipline over authenticity, and many bloggers do not. So Democrats should focus on tapping bloggers' energy while managing their passion--and disregard the self-serving complaints of their opponents. 

Very interesting reflections by Melber.

However, here's a question: Do the counterattacks from the conservatives reflect the power of bloggers/netroots or are they just an excuse or opportunity that comes along for conservatives to smear progressive campaigns? Maybe both?

Losing faith in online PR: Sony blackballing gaming blog Kotaku:

Guest post - By Jens Schroeder Jens Schroeder is a Ph.D. student at the HFF Konrad Wolf in Potsdam, Germany.

The short version: Popular gaming blog Kotaku reports rumor, upsets Sony, Sony blackballs Kotaku, the intertubes are with Kotaku, Sony and Kotaku get a room and make out.

Since Sony announced the release of the Playstation 3, they accumulated a pretty impressive record of alienating the gaming community. In fact, even the mainstream press was alienated. While Nintendo was all rainbows and unicorns, Sony's black behemoth was expensive and sitting on the shelves despite claims otherwise. In Europe, the problem was worse.

One might have expected the tide to turn once the console got released, but a lack of quality titles,  exclusivity and expensive BMWs provided ongoing skepticism (not to mention one of the worst examples of viral marketing EVER)

Along came Kotaku, reporting on a rumor about a forthcoming new technology that Sony is apparently about to reveal. Deciding that this might show the second best thing after sliced bread in some badly timed light and not letting the net create the buzz, Sony went for more alienation via blackmailing.

"Specifically, they said we would be asked to return our PS3, uninvited from all meetings scheduled with Sony at GDC, including one on blogger relations and a one-on-one with Phil Harrison, and that they would no longer deal with us" Kotaku Editor Brian Crecente writes. Crecente had the balls to run the piece and Dave Karraker, senior director of corporate communications for Sony Computer Entertainment of America wasn't happy:

"I am very disappointed that after trying to work with you as closely as possible and provide you and your team with access and information, you chose to report on this rumor.... I can't defend outlets that can't work cooperatively with us. So, it is for this reason, that we will be canceling all further interviews for Kotaku staff at GDC and will be dis-inviting you to our media event next Tuesday"

In a split second the internet imploded and a black hole formed. Sony was about to get sucked into a parallel universe were Atari still ruled the market. Only a phone call to Kotaku could save them. The issue was resolved and they all lived happily ever after.

It leaves a weird aftertaste: When will Sony stop the alienation? Why didn't they let the web do the buzz? Are they afraid that the negativity built up to a point where they didn't want to leave anything up to the blogosphere? Destructoid editor Robert Summer writes: "Whether you know it or not, about 70-80% of the Internet hates you right now. I understand this might mean absolutely nothing to you, but this isn't 1997".

Of course part of PR work is to control rumors and get the company's message across (yes, Microsoft in these cases would give you their standard line but they keep close ties with gamers by other means, as Summer points out) – though here there was finally some exciting news for the few Playstation 3 owners out there. Maybe a little bit more openness/honesty would help.

We is Social Media guys.

As the proofreader for anything that Blogcampaigning's other team members write in English, I keep pretty busy and don't always catch their mistakes. Sometimes, I'm not even aware that they have made mistakes. Hell, I probably make quite a few mistakes myself. Fortunately, there are people out there like Ian Ketcheson (via Tamera at 3i) to keep me on my toes when it comes to the English language. Ian's recent post on social media being plural rather than singular is a lesson for all of us.

Hopefully, Terry Fallis and Joseph Thornley won't feel bad about their PRoper English turf being stepped on.

Useless blogs

Danny Glover of the Beltway Blogroll writes: You can trust me when I say that presidential campaign blogs are a waste of your precious time. They typically contain nothing but regurgitated press releases, photo ops, sound bites and spin. But if you don't want to trust my analysis, a new blog makes it easy for you to find out for yourself by aggregating the content from the presidential campaign blogs. Go to Oh-Ate.com for "a plethora of presidential propaganda, piped promptly and publicly."

If elected in 2008, former Virginia Gov. James Gilmore, a Republican, vowed to become the first blogging president. But I suspect that a presidential blog won't be worth much more time than a presidential campaign blog. Presidential candidates and presidents have more to gain from outreach to bloggers than from actually blogging themselves. That explains why the 2008 candidates are working hard to woo bloggers. That can work at the local level, too, according to one Connecticut blogger who wrote a column for the Hartford Courant.

Dan Thomasson of Scripps Howard News Service warned, "It is easy to predict that before this campaign is completed more than one presidential hopeful may regret the rush to the unruly world of the Internet, where the knack of making things up puts the most inventive politician to shame."

Well, I believe Glover actually has a good point. Check out Oh-Ate.com yourself to see what he is talking about.

I am human! (Say it through YouTube)

David Cameron, leader of Britain's Conservative Party, has been taking advantage of online video since he launched his Webcameron site in 2006. However, for all the talk of this being the "YouTube Election,"… none of the current candidates for president of the United States is doing anything close to what Cameron is doing, writes Rasiej and Sifry of the Poilitco.

The US candidates needs to start realizing the difference between video online and video on TV reports Rasiej and Sifry. Instead of relying on spin, they can give their audience authenticity.

“In the new world of online video, broadband is cheap and plentiful. Instead of sound bites, a candidate can speak in full paragraphs. He or she can do a daily video blog, or even several, because digital storage is practically unlimited and bandwidth costs are minimal. Like Cameron, he or she can talk to us in the context of their actual lives in relation to the issues at hand. They can talk while washing the dishes, walking to work, reacting to the news of the day or responding directly to questions that we, the voters, have chosen. The voter can get a more realistic view of the candidate as a sometimes fallible human being who, like all of us, struggles to be heard and has something real to say”, writes Rasiej and Sifry.

Well, there is still time left for the candidate in the Presidential race to learn from Cameron, and as Rasiej and Sifry predict: Power, reach and influence will flow (I would say: might flow) to the first campaign that grasps the difference between video online and video on TV.

This is how you run a campaign in 2007:

From RunObama.com: (An Afternoon with Barack Obama)

“In what has to be one of the coolest afternoons ever, The RunObama team was invited to sit down with Senator Obama at a small event that was arranged to say thank you to some of the grassroots groups that helped encourage him to run.

We joined some of the good folks from DraftObama.org and DraftBarackin2008.com, about ten in total, in a conference room near the hill this afternoon. The Senator arrived surprisingly unencumbered by staff (presidential candidates and/or senators tend to travel with herds of staff in tow) and apologized in advance that he would have to leave after about 45 minutes for a vote.

He thanked us for coming and for, more importantly, all of the work the various groups had put into convincing him to run (though he warned that his wife was less than thrilled with our success).”

That’s the way to go Obama - and an important lesson for other candidates to learn. Just see how much the 45 minutes meant to these grassroots groups! Imagine the work they will continue to do after the motivation given from the man himself!   

Techpresident: Five Quick Ways To Better Navigate YouTube

David All is in an essay over at Techpresiden identifying five ways politicians can positively embrace YouTube.

The essay comes as a reaction to YouTube's latest creation: You Choose ’08. As YouTubes press release states:

YouTube You Choose '08 is a centralized hub of candidate-created Channels that feature campaign videos, speeches, informal chats, behind-the-scenes footage and more. In addition, YouTube You Choose 2008 provides a platform for people to engage in dialogue with candidates and each other through the use of community features such as video responses, text comments and ratings.

Click the link to view All’s Five Quick Ways To Better Navigate the YouTube.

RE: BLOG!: Red Hot Research

It is true as Parker mentioned earlier that I am writing a thesis about political blogging (thanks for the nice words Parker). I have done research for six months now and just started on the writing process this week. The thing is, I want this thesis to be a collaboration and not just my own work. I therefore want help to shape the design of the study and to point out the direction it needs to take.

I will therefore briefly present the research problem of the study and the direction I am going in so far:

Research problem: Can communication via blogs influence political campaigns and impact the outcome of an election?

This is what I want to discuss: How can we measure the impact of blogs on political campaigns and the outcome of an election?

This is how I want to approach the research problem: By comparing studies examining blog activity in American and European election campaigns from 2004 to 2007, the papers seek to locate different aspects of blogging that can be argued to impact an election campaign. However, since the landscape of online communication is a rapidly changing one, and research on the topic is limited, it will be necessary to seek information beyond academic sources. The reflections and thoughts of leading bloggers (and online experts) on their role in the direction of a campaign will supplement the data that already exist on the topic and hopefully bring to light new dimensions not yet considered.

Findings in existing studies will be criticised and compared to the theoretical views of the subjects being studied. By locating opinions and statements represented by bloggers and online communication experts the paper will point out errors and limitations of existing studies and further present new ideas about how we can measure impact of political blogs.

So, I am very interested in hearing different opinions about the study’s approach to the subject: Is this an interesting approach? And any suggestions to how we can measure the impact of blogs is welcomed.

Thanks for taking an interest in my work.

Social Media Dreamin'

After reading this post about being sucked into the "social media vortex" by Michael Seaton, I started to think. Pretty much everyone I know has a Facebook and a Myspace account. In one of my two e-mail accounts, I still get updates from Friendster, and I'm sure that there are people out there who have more than that to deal with. My question, then, is why hasn't anyone developed a social-media conglomerator? I mean, I know that I can have my various social media sites and blog update me via my e-mail (and I could probably have one of my e-mail addresses forwarded to the other), but there doesn't seem to be anyone to manage things like that. I would love it if there was one page I could log into where I could see all my posts, and my friends sorted by source, and where I could also update and manage everything. Sigh. I guess its still just a dream.

BLOGS!: Red Hot Research

So I've just finished editing the silly Norwegian-into-English mistakes in the first part of an excellent research paper about political blogs by Espen Skoland (disclaimer: Espen Skoland is the Founder and Primary Contributor of this site, as well as a good friend of mine) and I can't wait to read the rest. Seriously, this guy is soaking up every political blog on the net like a sponge, and putting them through the academic reader. Does anyone know if there is anyone else out there doing something similar?

Who will the netroots support this year?

In the article ‘Battling for Netroots Support’, Chris Cillizza of The Washington Post is trying to figure out which presidential candidate the netroots will prefer this election cycle.

“The quick growth of this loose conglomeration of online progressive activists has made it a powerful interest group within Democratic politics but, unlike 2004 when the vast majority of its leaders and footsoldiers were behind former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, the support of the netroots is less unified this time around,” writes Cillizza.

In an attempt to see how the trend emerges, Cillizza looks for measures of netroots energy on ActBlue, MySpace friends and TechPresident. In my opinion it is more interesting to see how people like Cillizza looks for measures of netroots energy than then their actually findings at this stage. Click on this link to see Cillizza’s conclusion. By the way, The Post promises to monitor measures of online support on an occasional basis throughout the nominating contest in hopes of better understanding how the netroots are shaping the political landscape - Interesting.

Update

This is how Blog I.P responded to the articel.

A lesson from the field: Why Lindsay Beyerstein refused to blog for Edwards

In the post Why I refused to blog for Edwards, Lindsay Beyerstein (author of Majikthise) gives a valuable insight to the aspects professional bloggers and political campaigns should consider before going into a relationship with on another. Beyerstein presents some valuable lessons about how effective bloggers and campaigns can work together if they consider their various options of relationships.

Don’t let the fact that the piece is three pages long scare you – it is a must-read-piece!

Also, check out Eric Boehlert piece discussing Washington Post’s favouritism of right-wing-bloggers over at Media Matters - The piece presents a interesting angle that deserves further discussion.

Yeah, but where's the open-source Root Beer?

Although I can't tell the difference between Coke and Pepsi, I consider myself somewhat of a root beer enthusiast, and drink the stuff whenever I get a chance, although I've found it doesn't mix well with booze (any suggestions?). Living overseas for a few years in countries that, for the most part, completely lack good root beer did nothing but heighten my sense of taste for the drink. Oh, sure, Australia had its variations of ginger beer, sarsaparilla, and even one drink unfortunately labelled SARS that tasted a little bit like root beer, but none of it compared to North American Barq's or good ol' Albert & Walter's.

Now, when I first read this article about Open Source Cola I immediately thought about trying to start an open-source root beer. I'm sure it could be done with only a few simple modifications to the cola's recipe, but I don't think I'm the man to do it.

Instead, I finished the article and realized what an incredible success story the cola is. Apparently, it was created in an attempt to explain open-source software to the masses. While I'm sure it did that, it was also a hit product in itself.

We live in a world where we are becoming increasingly numb to advertising and promotional materials. Getting people to pay attention to your message means delivering it in an engaging way. The OpenCola team may not have understood this from the outset, but I'm sure they do now. The very fact that they were able to move sell 150,000 cans of the stuff is proof of this.

And now it's time for me to sit down with a big mug of frosty root beer so that I too can dream up the new advertising success story.

The Wisest Mouth To Get Your Words From

Thanks to Joseph Thornley's 'Faces of Social Media' page, I've finally been able to find the blogs of all the people at met at the recent Third Tuesday event. From now on, I'll  be paying a lot more attention to the incredibly personable Sean Moffitt and his Buzz Canuck page, as he seems to be the go-to guy for word-of-mouth advertising in the GTA. I'm hoping to get the chance to take a good, solid look at his Word Of Mouth Playbook in the next few days, and I suggest you do the same. Although it is in PDF format, I expect that it is the sort of thing that will be constantly rewritten over the next few weeks. It will certainly be good homework for the upcoming Mass to Grass conference.

Do it yourself!

After taking part in the "Blog to the Chief" panel at the Dole Institute for Politics last week Jerome Armstrong writes that one thing that became evident during the discussion regarding the Presidential campaigns is that none of the panel participants expect much by the '08 contenders in regards to either campaign blogs or their blogging.

“There is an expectation of blogger outreach, and interacting with the existing blog communities, but a campaign is just not going to be able to compete with community blogs that have been longer standing and represent a more authentic interaction. Dean's Blog For America was the first successful campaign blog, and maybe the last (a Barack Obama's social networking site is not going to replace, or even compete, with Facebook). I just don't see interesting blogging happening from within a campaign, and certainly that's the lesson from the Edwards bloggers debacle,” Armstrong writes.

“I say this with one caveat. If a candidate blogged, that might be interesting, but it's not practical give the verbal habit of politicians-- they don't write much at all. However, if any of the candidates take up reality-based vlogging on a daily basis, and it's real, it is going to be a sensation. But which campaign is going to devote the resources to having a video person on the road, a video person in house, and a high-level staffer responsible for daily oversight? That's no small devotion of campaign resources.”

Armstrong’s point is that, blogging on behalf of a candidate is just not compelling. “If a candidate wants to use this medium to reach people, they are going to have to figure out how to do it themselves.” Armstrong writes.

I agree, and the likelihood that any of the presidential candidates will do this in the near future is probably minimal. However, we might see more small-time candidates doing it themselves in smaller election circles around the world.

Update

Candidates should at least listen to bloggers if they want to obtain a relationship with them writes Todd Zeigler of TBR. It seems the McCain campaign is failing to do so!

Useful links

Here are some useful posts and articles I missed this week. I apologise for not being up to date – The Australian sun (and surf) has made me lazy. Monday it is back to work and thesis writing again, I promise to do a better job then.

PopMatters: Candidates find both opportunity, minefield on Web

Blog the Campaign 08: Blog Hillary is Live…where is Hillary?

Washington Post: The 'Crime' Of Blogging In Egypt

The Daily Star: Democracy is possible, Arab bloggers assure us every day

Boston Globe: Political bloggers fear publicists will infiltrate sites